Walter Bagehot (1826-1877) : Essay on Edward Gibbon (1856), published in "Literary Studies", Vol. 2. Dent, London, 1911. Ma traduction.
Reflections on the chronology of the financial crisis (Vox)
John Geanakoplos : Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle
¤ La bulle -
(cliquez pour agrandir)Pour générer un graphique sur la bulle immobilière depuis 1987, cf. Standard & Poor’s/Case–Shiller Home Price Indices -- pour des données et des graphiques (régulièrement actualisés) sur l'évolution séculaire des marchés actions, cf. la base de Shiller & Case : Stock market data
¤ Aux origines de la bulle
La montée de la dette aux Etats-Unis : Who’s Most Indebted? Banks, Not Consumers, avec infographie (NYT)
Trop de liquidités
China and U.S. bound themselves with linked addictions (IHT) & Global economic imbalances : When a flow becomes a flood (Economist) & The China Puzzle (NYT)
The Fed Didn't Cause the Housing Bubble, by Alan Greenspan & How Government Created the Financial Crisis, by John Taylor & The Financial Crisis: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong, by John Taylor (ppt) & Geithner's Revelation : He concedes that monetary policy was 'too loose too long (WSJ)
Keynes ou Friedman ?, par Daniel Cohen (Le Monde)
Trop de risques
The Price of Optimism & Risk Mismanagement (NYT)
A short history of modern finance (Economist)
The Looting of America’s Coffers (NYT) & The Quiet Coup, by Simon Johnson (Atlantic)
Securitisation and financial stability, by Hiun Song Shin (Vox)
Three Trends and a Train Wreck & Bailout of Long-Term Capital: A Bad Precedent?, by Tyler Cowen (NYT)
Ces banques qui n’assurent plus (Télos)
Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt (NYT)
Risky business, by Kenneth Arrow (Guardian)
Lost through destructive creation (FT)
What Caused the Financial Crisis? & Who's the Villain in the Crisis? (Mark Thoma)
¤ La crise des subprimes
Diaporama : La crise des subprimes (via SOS-SES)
Multimedia: The Debt Trap (NYT) not. "The american way of debt"
Radio : The Giant Pool of Money -- Why did banks make half-million dollar loans to people without jobs or income? Un excellent reportage de NPR, dans l'émission "The american life".
Building Flawed American Dreams (NYT) & Témoignage : My Personal Credit Crisis (NYT) & Shelter, or burden? -- The social benefits of home ownership look more modest than they did and the economic costs much higher (Economist)
Diaporama : La titrisation (J. Dornbusch) & Qu'est-ce que la titrisation (Finance et Développement) & Titrisation : bien ! Irresponsabilité : pas bien ! (Optimum)
Le rapport du CAE : La crise des subprimes -- pour un résumé, cf. la lettre de 4 pages du CAE (en anglais).
¤ La crise bancaire
Radio : The Financial Crisis for Dummies (NPR), un exposé remarquablement clair et vivant du problème
Achille et la tortue (Télos)
Infographie : Evolution de la capitalisation boursière des banques en 2008 (Alphaville) & Le plongeon des banques françaises en 2008 (Le Monde)
Infographie: Des subprimes à la chute des Bourses, les mécanismes de la crise financière (Le Monde)
Illiquidity and Insolvency (Mark Thoma)
Crise de liquidité ou de solvabilité ? (Télos)
Le cas de Lehman Brothers
Struggling to Keep Up as the Crisis Raced On (NYT)
Le cas de Fannie Mae et Freddie Mac
Pressured to Take More Risk, Fannie Hit a Tipping Point, avec infographie : Leaning on Risks (NYT) -- Freddie et Fannie, mortelle randonnée (Le Monde) -- Rêve américain : plus dur est le réveil (Télos)
Le cas de Citigroup
Citigroup Saw No Red Flags Even as It Made Bolder Bets (NYT)
Le cas d'AIG
Behind Insurer’s Crisis, Blind Eye to a Web of Risk, avec infographie (NYT)
Comment l'assureur AIG a perdu plus que toutes les banques d'affaires (Le Monde)
Le cas de Washington Mutual
Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans (NYT)
En Europe aussi
The beginning of the end game… (VoxEU) & Subprime Europe (NYT)
¤ La crise économique
Infographie: Credit Crisis Indicators -régulièrement mis à jour (NYT)
Blocked pipes (Economist) & Aux Etats-Unis, les banques ne se remettront pas à prêter de sitôt (Le Monde)
Financial Market Risks and Negative Nominal T-bill Rates (Aplia Econblog)
Quand la crise financière rattrape l'économie réelle (Figaro) & Des entreprises jusqu'aux ménages, comment le krach boursier contamine l'"économie réelle" & Le crédit rare et plus cher pénalise les entreprises (Le Monde)
Irving Fisher -- Out of Keynes's shadow (Economist) & Hire Irving Fisher! (Vox)
The D word
Infographies : L'évolution du PIB français depuis 1990 (Le Monde) & UE : la situation économique des Vingt-Sept & Les prévisions économiques de la Commission européenne (Le Monde) & US : Job Losses in 2008 (NYT) & U.S. Jobless Rate Likely to Pass Europe’s & Un an de chômage en France (Figaro) & Un an d'inflation dans la zone euro (Echos) & "The Fall of the Mall" (Thoma) & Of Recessions and Recoveries (WSJ) & Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting Records (NYT)
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? (Economist)
No ordinary recession (Vox) & Drastic times (Economist)
Multimedia: Milestones in the Carmakers’ Crisis & Living with less: The Recession’s Impact (NYT)
What Other Financial Crises Tell Us : The lesson of history is grim: Expect a prolonged slump, by Kenneth Rogoff & Carmen Reinhart (WSJ)
La crise mondiale enraye la machine à exporter chinoise (Le Monde) & infographie: Trade Is Falling Fast Across the Globe (NYT) & The world economy is tracking or doing worse than during the Great Depression (Vox)
Effets de richesse : Housing Prices and Consumption (Becker blog) & infographies: Americans See 18% of Wealth Vanish (WSJ) & Savings Rate Rises as Net Worth Declines (NYT)
Histoire : La Grande Dépression (Antisophiste), traduction partielle de "The Great Crash & the Great Slump", de Bradford DeLong -- 24 octobre 1929: tout bascule (Le Monde) -- Christina Romer, The Great Depression, Encyclopædia Britannica -- Diaporama : La crise économique des années 30 (Clionautes) -- les premières réactions au Krach de 1929 : A Storm Unforeseen, Always About to Pass (NYT) -- How Does the Current Crisis Compare to the Great Depression?, By Price Fishback (Freakonomics) & Infographie: Keeping Things in Perspective (Mankiw)
II. Le Remède
¤ Les autorités face à la crise
.
The detailed story of every banking crisis in our history shows how much depends on the presence of one or more outstanding individuals willing to assume responsibility and leadership….Economic collapse often has the characteristics of a cumulative process. Let it go beyond a certain point, and it will tend to gain strength from its own development…. Because no great strength would be required to hold back the rock that starts a landslide, it does not follow that the landslide will not be of major proportions. (Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz : Monetary History of the United States)
La garantie des dépots
Garantir les dépôts : oui, mais à quelles conditions ? (Télos)
Infographie: Les garanties de dépôts en Europe (Le Monde)
La réponse des autorités monétaires
Infographie : Major Steps This Year by the Fed & the Treasury Dept (NYT)
Video: A Primer on Quantitative Easing (Market place)
Bernanke Is the Best Stimulus Right Now, by Robert Lucas (WSJ)
It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative, par Greg Mankiw (NYT)
Le traitement de choc de la BCE pour enrayer la crise & Faucons et colombes s'affrontent à la BCE & La BCE veut débloquer le crédit aux entreprises et aux ménages & Le martyre des banques centrales & La BCE continue de chouchouter les banques (Le Monde)
Infographie : L'évolution des taux directeurs de la Fed et de la BCE (Le Monde)
Central banks: The monetary-policy maze (Economist)
Les questions posées par le spectaculaire geste de la Fed (Echos) & La Fed se lance dans les achats de bons du Trésor (Jdf)
Recapitaliser les banques
How to Recapitalize the Financial System (Mankiw) & More Than One Way to Take Over a Bank (NYT) & Bank Balance Sheet: Liquidity and Solvency, Part I & Part II (Calculated risk)
The Evolution of Henry Paulson (WSJ)
U.S. Details Plan to Buy Up to $1 Trillion in Risky Assets (NYT) & Geithner dévoile son plan pour assainir les banques (Figaro) & Dr Geithner's bank rehab (Economist) & Steady Through This Storm, by Ricardo Caballero (WP)
Banks need more capital, by Alan Greenspan (Economist)
Pour sauver les banques, regardons leurs dettes (Télos)
Le Trésor américain dépassé par les événements ? (Télos)
America's banking crisis: Worse than Japan? (Economist) & Stopping a Financial Crisis, the Swedish Way (NYT)
Infographie: The Fed's Cash Machine (Atlantic)
The curse of politics - Financial crises can drag on because efficient remedies are politically unpalatable (Economist)
Stress Tests for Beginners (Baseline scenario) -- infographie: Results of the Bank Stress Tests (NYT) -- Dix banques américaines sommées de lever 75 milliards de dollars (Figaro) -- Stress Tests and The Nationalization We Got (Baseline scenario) -- Les banques américaines contraintes à la réforme (Echos) -- Hospital pass (Economist)
Les plans de sauvetage en Europe
Comprendre les plans de sauvetage -- Plan de soutien aux banques : un accord "gagnant-gagnant" (Le Monde)
La relance
Infographie: How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions (NYT)
Les principales mesures du plan de relance Obama (Le Monde)
Big government fights back (Economist)
The Big Fix (NYT)
What to Do, by Paul Krugman (NY Review of Books) & Comment prévenir une dépression économique ?, par Brad DeLong (Echos) & (Nearly) nothing to fear but fear itself, by Olivier Blanchard (Economist)
What Would Keynes Have Done? by Greg Mankiw (NYT)
The Remedist, by Robert Skidelsky (NYT) & le commentaire de Mark Thoma
A picture worth a thousand of Keynes’s (Thoma)
John Maynard Keynes, l'homme de l'année 2009 (Figaro)
Who should get the federal stimulus funds, By Edward L. Glaeser (Boston Globe)
Vidéo: The Obama Program, by Larry Summers (Brookings)
The macroeconomics debate: A guided tour (Vox)
When ‘Deficit’ Isn’t a Dirty Word, by Robert Frank (NYT)
Relance : pourquoi les Américains ont raison, par Charles Wyplosz (Télos)
Stimulus Skeptics
Why Permanent Tax Cuts Are the Best Stimulus, by John B. Taylor (WSJ)
Spending and Tax Multipliers & Uncertainty and the Marginal propensity to consume (Mankiw) Infrastructure projects: Roads to nowhere (Economist)
How Not to Stimulate the Economy (Mankiw) & The Problem of Hasty Public Investment & Another Stimulus Spending Skeptic (Mankiw) & Keynes as Public Works Skeptic (Think market)
Plan to Jump-Start Economy With No Manual & Maybe It Can’t: A Trap in Obama’s Spending Plan & Stimulus Components Vary in Speed and Efficiency (NYT)
Fiscal policy again? A rebuttal to Mr Krugman (Vox)
Is Government Spending Too Easy an Answer?, by Greg Mankiw (NYT)
Infrastructure in a Stimulus Package (Gary Becker)
Government Spending Is No Free Lunch, by Robert Barro (WSJ)
The deficit: How big is too big? (Economist)
Japan’s Big-Works Stimulus Is Lesson for U.S. (NYT)
There's No Stimulus Free Lunch -- It's hard to spend wise and spend fast, by Gary Becker & Kevin Murphy (WSJ)
Plans de relance : des efforts hétéroclites pour des effets incertains (Le Monde)
A lot of bucks, but how much bang? (Vox)
Les plans de relance en Europe
Europe, Aided by Safety Nets, Resists U.S. Stimulus Push (NYT)
Infographie : Les plans de relance européens (Le Monde)
Transatlantic divergence in tackling the crisis, par Charles Wyploscz (Vox)
France : Relance : mille projets contre la crise, avec infographie (Figaro)
Allemagne: The German fiscal stimulus package in perspective (Vox)
Chine
China’s Route Forward (NYT)
Précédents historiques
Intervention is bold, but has a basis in history (NYT)
Financial crisis management: Lessons from Japan’s failure (Vox) & Japan Offers a Possible Road Map for U.S. Economy (NYT)
A lesson rooted in the Great Depression (NYT)
¤ Et après ?
La baisse des prix de l'immobilier se poursuit
No Quick Fix for Housing Prices (WSJ)
Infographie : Home Prices in Selected Cities (NYT)
House prices: Caught in the downward current (Economist)
Le risque protectionniste
If We Buy American, No One Else Will, by Douglas Irwin (NYT)
Chacun pour soi, la crise pour tous ! (Télos)
We've built these walls before, alas, by Edward Glaeser (IHT)
Turning their backs on the world (Economist)
Protectionnisme : la tentation permanente (Le Monde)
Le problème de la dette publique et le risque d'inflation
A Short History of the National Debt, par John Gordon (WSJ)
Worries Rise on the Size of U.S. Debt, avec infographie (NYT) & Infographies : Budget Deficit as a Percent of GDP & The Fiscal Future & The Fiscal Future, Again (Mankiw) & Record High Yield Curve (Calculated risk) & Exploding debt threatens America, by John Taylor (FT)
Countries are so deep in debt, they risk drowning in red ink, by Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) & Soigner le mal par le mal, par Pierre-Antoine Delhommais (Le Monde)
Les Etats vont devoir emprunter massivement (Le Monde)
L'insoutenable explosion de la dette publique française & Infographie : Finances publiques : les dernières prévisions gouvernementales (Le Monde)
Le poisson rouge et l'hyperinflation & Inflation, déflation, quel péril choisir ?, par Jean-Pisani-Ferry (Le Monde) & Inflation Nation, by Alan Meltzer (NYT) & Money's muddled message (Economist) & How economists can misunderstand the crisis, By Niall Ferguson (FT)
La régulation financière
Forcément inéquitables, par Pierre-Noël Giraud (Le Monde)
Finance et sociologie, par Christian Morel (Le Monde)
Financial Regulation 101: The human factor (IHT)
Complexity kills (Vox)
Do we really want to regulate everything that moves? (Vox)
We are all macroprudentialists now (Vox)
Un cercle vicieux de la régulation bancaire ? (Une heure de peine)
The cat-and-mouse between national governments and their banks (Vox)
Managing fads, frenzies and finance markets, by Xavier Vives (Japan Times)
Financial innovation, regulation, and reform, by Charles Calomiris (Vox)
Le théorème des subprimes, par Pierre-Antoine Delhommais
Good Government and Animal Spirits - Every talented player understands the importance of a strong referee, by Akerlof and Shiller (WSJ)
Size Really Does Matter (Baseline scenario)
Conclusion : La fin du capitalisme ?
Not the end of capitalism (Vox)
Non, le capitalisme n'est pas responsable de la crise financière (Le Monde)
Uncertainty bedevils the best system, by Edmund Phelps (Financial Times)
La fin du capitalisme ? Non, bien au contraire… (Télos)
Capitalism at bay -- What went wrong and, rather more importantly for the future, what did not (Economist)
Crise du capitalisme ou crise de la monnaie ?, par Jean Peyrelevade (Le Monde)
Vidéo: A Discussion With Nobel Laureates in Economics: Whither Capitalism?, with Gary Becker, Roger Myerson, & Myron Scholes & The Road Ahead, with Stiglitz, Solow, and Johnson
Do not let the ‘cure’ destroy capitalism, By Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy (FT)
What History Tells Us About the Market (WSJ)
"When there is a stock market boom, and everyone is scrambling for common stocks, take all your common stocks and sell them. Take the proceeds and buy conservative bonds. No doubt the stocks you sold will go higher. Pay no attention to this--just wait for the depression which will come sooner or later. When this depression--or panic--becomes a national catastrophe, sell out the bonds (perhaps at a loss) and buy back the stocks. Again pay no attention. Wait for the next boom. Continue to repeat this operation as long as you live, and you'll have the pleasure of dying rich."
Where Are the Customers' Yachts? by Fred Schwed Jr. (1940)
